Här hittar du våra senaste temaanalyser av aktuella ämnen och händelser som påverkar svensk och internationell ekonomi.
Här hittar du våra senaste temaanalyser av aktuella ämnen och händelser som påverkar svensk och internationell ekonomi.
Read the full analysis/report here (pdf) - 2022-06-22
According to Valueguard price growth have slowed from 6% y/y in April to 2.9% y/y in May and the price drop has continued so far in June. In May prices of single-family homes fell by 1.4% and prices of tenant-owned flats fell by 1.6%. Prices in metropolitan areas are slowing down faster than in the rest of the country. Prices of tenant-owned flats in Stockholm and Gothenburg have continued to slowdown markedly during the first two weeks of June and in total prices have dropped by about 7% since the end of April.
Indicators from Booli Pro and Svensk Mäklarstatistik paint the picture of very cautious home buyers. E.g. time on market has increased, the bid-premium has plummeted and the number of transactions have dropped substantially.
Although demographic factors and changing housing preferences since the start of the pandemic together a strong labour market could support demand for single-family homes and larger flats in the longer run, home buyers have quickly revised their price expectations to the new much higher mortgage rates and high inflation environment with weak real income growth. The previously hot housing market is cooling down fast. We expect a price drop by about 10% during 2022 and 2023 but given the large amount of uncertainty and the large change in mortgage rates we cannot rule out a slightly larger price drop. By the end of our forecast horizon the housing market will be supported by the fact that new supply of homes is likely to decrease significantly from the high levels this year.
Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf) - 2 maj 2022
11 april 2022: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)
Stor osäkerhet kring ränteutvecklingen framöver
Vi reviderar upp prognoserna för bolåneräntor ytterligare
7 mars 2022: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)
Snabb återhämtning i svensk ekonomi
28 februari 2022: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)
25 Februari 2022: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
Due to historical links between the Baltics and Russia, economic ties have been strong, although decreasing over time.
14 Februari 2022: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
10 januari 2022: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)
Nordic and Baltic economies relatively spared so far
17 december 2021: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
6 december 2021: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)
Fortsatt stigande räntor i Sverige i oktober men stabila bolåneräntor.
Vi reviderar upp prognoserna på stats- och swapräntor.
1 november 2021: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)
Oct 28 2021: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
Oct 8 2021: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
Återhämtning, men strukturella förändringar påverkar fastighetsmarknaden
Den positiva makrobilden med en kraftfull återhämtning i ekonomin kommer att understödja sektorn som helhet. Men pandemin har påskyndat en rad strukturella förändringar som påverkar olika fastighetssegment på olika sätt. För kontors- och handelsfastigheter räknar vi med ökade vakanser, medan efterfrågan på logistik- och samhällsfastigheter samt bostäder är mycket hög.
Företag och emittenter möter gynnsamma finansiella förhållanden där centralbankernas expansiva penningpolitik bidrar. I takt med att ekonomierna återhämtar sig kommer ränteläget att normaliseras och kreditspreadar kommer att stiga. Inom ett par år kan det handla om betydligt högre finansieringskostnader för vissa bolag.
23 september 2021: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)
Konsumenterna återvänder till butikerna
Förutsättningarna för hushållen förblir goda under kommande två år. Lättade restriktioner och minskad smittspridning har bidragit till att konsumtionen återhämtat sig. I höst räknar vi med en fortsatt gradvis normalisering där tjänstekonsumtionen ökar. Trender som kommer att prägla närtiden är ett ökat hållbarhetsfokus, en fortsatt digitalisering och en hög andel distansarbete. För företagen – oavsett sektor inom handeln - gäller det att integrera hållbarhetsarbetet i flera delar av verksamheten (förpackning, transporter, avfallshantering osv). Samtidigt väntas en flexiblare policy kring distansarbete öka vikten av att handelsföretag har en väl fungerande omnikanal.
6 september 2021: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)
Sustainable development indicators show that all the Nordic and Baltic countries have a long way to go to reach the 2030 Sustainable development goals. At the sectoral level, especially utilities and transport, agriculture and forestry have high emission intensities in many Nordic and Baltic countries.
For the world to reach net-zero emissions, a higher price of carbon is needed. This would have the largest impacts in carbon-intensive and export-reliant sectors in mining and manufacturing, utilities and transport. Transition risks are considerable in the Nordics and Baltics, although most of them have an emission intensity below the global average.
23 juni 2021: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
24 maj 2021: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)
29 april 2021: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)
Den gröna omställningen ställer höga krav på Sveriges redan ansträngda elnät. Kraftigt ökade investeringar behövs och är planerade, men risken är stor att de dröjer. Det finns lösningar för kapacitetsbristen men många pusselbitar behöver komma på plats.
11 februari 2021: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här
8 oktober 2020: Läs frågor och svar här (pdf)
• The Nordic economies are recovering but the spread of the virus remains a big unknown
• Special theme: the Nordic housing market – Prices at new record highs
• We foresee continued house price increases but at a slower pace
1 oktober 2020: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
29 september 2020: Sammanfattning: Bättre- men inte bra (pdf)
24 september 2020: A key election for the planet (pdf)
Gröna investeringar utgör hittills en marginell del av de globala stimulanserna. Sverige har annonserat minst gröna stimulanser i Norden men mer förväntas komma.
26 augusti 2020: Ännu ingen grön återhämtning
The Swedish government’s first green bond is an important political signal and will support spending towards Sweden’s environmental targets. Given the state’s increased borrowing needs, the timing of the green bond issuance is good.
24 augusti 2020: Swedish Green Bond: Time for issuance
Will EU's recovery fund help in reaching targets?
Real-time data is an important input to timely economic forecasting, especially during a crisis. Swedbank Pay’s daily transaction data aligns well with the official consumption statistics. The latest data indicates a recovery in May and June, albeit from a low level.
24 juni 2020: Macro Focus: Real-time transaction data (pdf)
Political momentum and cheaper renewables support a greener crisis recovery in Europe. The Nordics are on the right track, but more is needed.
22 juni 2020: A greenish recovery
The Nordic and Baltic economies will be hard hit by the Covid-19-induced shock due to their small size and relative openness. However, the Nordics and Baltics are well prepared to take on the challenge.
26 maj 2020: Nordic-Baltic Business Report (pdf)
Historical drops in GDP in the Nordics while unemployment surges. Private consumption takes a deep hit due to containment measures
29 April 2020: Nordic Macro Monthly (pdf)
Priserna kommer att falla i spåren av Coronakrisen men efter krisen väntas bostadsmarknaden återhämta sig
Begränsade effekter på tillväxt och arbetsmarknader i Norden och Baltikum hittills men vid ett sannolikt scenario blir följder stora på både tillväxt och arbetsmarknader.
5 mars 2020: Corona slår mot Norden och Baltikum
Growth in Nordics between 1 and 2% in 2020. Corona weighs on interest rates and Scandies. Special theme: Finland is getting too old.
26 februari 2020: Nordic Macro Monthly
The federal funds rate was left unchanged, but a 5 bps increase of the IOER. We continue to expect federal funds to be unchanged although risks are leaning towards more easing.
30 januari 2019: Fed update: No big surprises
Annual rotation of regional president not causing a shift in monetary policy. We do not expect any further rate cuts, but the downside risks dominate.
24 januari 2019: Fed preview: Continued on hold
No changes in monetary policy. Strategic review launched as expected.
23 januari 2019: ECB comment: Nothing new, but the review
Inom EU bubblar en slags grön protektionism. Bland annat förespråkas koldioxidtullar, som skulle kunna bidra till att minska de globala utsläppen. För svensk del skulle tullarna innebära högre kostnader för hushåll och företag men även förstärkt konkurrenskraft för vissa företag.
21 januari 2020: Grön protektionism – hot eller möjlighet
No changes in monetary policy expected on Thursday. The big event is the launch of the strategic review of monetary policy.
21 januari 2019: ECB preview: ECB to launch its strategic review
Disturbed by Midsummer
22 juni 2022: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
Easter boosted spending on food
20 april 2022: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
Business as usual – up with payday
6 april 2022: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
Is consumption spending losing momentum?
30 mars 2022: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
Steps toward normalcy
16 mars 2022: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
Omicron gloom despite payday relief
2 februari 2022: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
Consumption ends 2021 on a weak note
5 januari 2022: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
An initial omicron effect?
8 december 2021: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
30 november: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
Autumn’s half-term break boosted services spending
10 november 2021: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
Recovery underway in the travel sector?
The effect of eased restrictions on June 1st is visible in the transaction data, and services spending improved in recent week. Spending on restaurant and hotel services increased by almost 20% compared to the week before.
Total spending 4% above last year’s level in recent week, and about 1% below the pre-pandemic level (data until 29 May). Total consumption follows pre-pandemic spending pattern since February, suggesting a sharp increase during the summer.
Spending on travel services has started to increase after more than a year at bottom levels. The trend is positive in the hotel & restaurant sector, which is hopefully facing an equally large upswing as last summer.
Uptick in total spending in recent week due to higher grocery spending during the Ascension holiday (data until 15 May). The four-week trend for total spending increased further, and the level was 1.6% below the corresponding weeks in 2019.
Home electronics spending remains elevated and even exceeds last year’s home office supply hoarding phase. A new report shows that transaction data is a good indicator of household consumption, also in times of increased e-commerce.
Uptick in total spending in recent week due to payday effect, but overall, the pandemic spending pattern continues. The four-week trend for services spending remains at about 35% below normal levels (data until May 1st).
Overall spending 3.5% higher than during the corresponding week in 2020. The trend in the service sector stays positive, mainly driven by increased spending in restaurants & hotels.
Spending improved in recent week as compared with the worst week of the pandemic in 2020, but declined compared to 2019. The four-week trend has declined somewhat for goods while it has flattened for services spending (data until 17 April).
Annual growth rate weakened in recent week, and spending compared to 2019 was back in negative territory. The trend in the service sector remains positive, while spending on goods dropped.
Total spending increased 1.3% compared to 2019 and was even higher compared to 2020: 17.6% (data until 3 April). Spending on groceries contributed the most and was elevated compared to Easter both in 2020 and 2019.
Total spending is almost 13% higher than last year’s level, but remains below normal levels. The trend is still encouraging, and spending on both goods and services has increased in recent months.
Total spending increases to 1.6% above last year’s level (data until 20 March), but remains 4.6% below normal levels. Annual growth rate of services spending goes positive, although the turnover remains nearly 40% below normal levels.
Total spending was -3% last week, while the four-week average was -5.5% (y/y, data up to 6 March). Spending on goods was 2% higher and spending on services was 28% lower than last year’s level.
Spending on goods declined at the end of the month. Higher spending on services, but favourable base effects are starting to kick in.
Total spending was -6% last week, while the four-week average was -5% (y/y, data up to 20 February). Spending on goods was 3% higher than last year’s level, while spending on services was 39% lower.
Spending on restaurants & hotels has not kept up the pace with improving hospitalisations. Goods spending has been elevated in recent weeks.
Spending on recreation and culture above pre-crisis levels. Services spending still muted albeit a bit higher.
Spending in recent week rose and stood only 5% below last year’s level, but January was still the second-worst month since the pandemic outbreak.
Spending on services remain muted but no obvious effects from alcohol-ban at restaurants. Regional data suggests not a lot of travelling during the holidays.
Total transaction turnover stabilised at 8% below last year’s level. After a volatile December, spending patterns have returned to a “pandemic normal”.
Turnover drops in all sectors compared to 2019 Christmas shopping. Two shopping days short of last year and more online shopping warrant a cautious interpretation of the magnitude.
Christmas shopping and holiday sales underperformed as spending in shops decreased markedly. For the full-year 2020, spending was 5% lower than 2019, while spending on services declined by 28%.
Restaurants and hotels spending improved and seems to have left the bottom behind. Home electronics, clothes and shoes spending suggest an early start to Christmas shopping.
Spending on social activities continues to drop. Yet no signs of early Christmas shopping.
Spending on home electronics increased by 22% compared to Black week in 2019. The drop in the service sector seems to have stabilised, but at very low levels.
Overall spending drops to 10% below last year's level as service sectors struggle. Spending patterns similar to the first wave, but without hoarding of food.
Spending is trending downwards, although it remained at 8% below last year’s level in past week. Restaurants and clothing drop, while spending on home electronics and durables increase.
18 November: Consuming Spending Observer (pdf)
Spending dropped markedly in early November. Restaurant turnover was down 40%. Tighter restrictions directly affected spending in restaurants as is clear from Uppsala and other places.
11 November: Consuming Spending Observer (pdf)
Spending has increased markedly in recent days; probably due to payday, staycations and Halloween. Spending trend remains stable, but expected to decline due to new restrictions.
4 November: Consuming Spending Observer (pdf)
Consumer spending still fairly stable, just below last year’s level. Significant regional differences in restaurant spending.
21 October: Consuming Spending Observer (pdf)
Consumer spending steady, just below last year’s level. The near-term development remains fragile and depends on the corona evolution.
7 October 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Consumer spending stable at a few percent below last year’s level. Corona continues to boost spending on groceries, home electronics, and home furnishings.
23 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Continued stable spending during last week at about 2% below last year’s level, and the growth rate in total spending seems to have reached a new, but temporary, normal.
16 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
After a fairly stable summer, September has started off on a stronger footing. Spending patterns are starting to look more and more like 2019 for several sectors, albeit on a lower level.
9 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Payday bounceback and almost all sectors improved in level terms. The overall trend in spending is stable at around 4% lower compared to last year.
2 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Card transaction turnover improved during last week in level terms, but fell in annual terms due to a pay day effect. The overall trend in spending is stable at around 4% lower compared to last year.
26 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Swedish card transaction data indicates that spending is still on track of approaching last year’s level. Growth is driven by groceries spending and offset mainly by a decline in recreation & culture and airlines & travel agencies.
19 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Swedish card transaction data indicates that spending is approaching last year’s level. Restaurants & hotels continue to improve, while spending on groceries is much higher compared to last year.
12 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Some sectors are closing up the gap to 2019 spending. Travel-related spending persists at extremely low levels, while spending on restaurants & hotels is approaching normal levels
5 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Swedish card transaction data up until 25 July shows spending at about 5% below last year’s level. Restaurants & hotels show a significant improvement, while spending on groceries is less elevated compared to a month ago.
29 juli 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Swedish card transaction data up until 20 June shows that spending recovered further, and total turnover is now back to last year’s level, with a different composition, however. Total spending excluding grocery stores is also improving and is now down by 8% compared to a year ago.
24 juni 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)
Swedish card transaction data up until 13 June continues to show lower spending compared to a year ago. Underlying trend in spending seems to be picking up slightly.
17 juni 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)